[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081711
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5W 77.3W AT 07/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 156 NM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 75W-78W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
6N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N20W TO 2N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 20W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N86W. 10-15 SE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. A TROUGH IS IS OVER THE E GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 80W. THE END RESULT IS MOSTLY NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SOME AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BUILD OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-
78W. LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
AREA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA...AND N COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BUILD OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE ISLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY
STABLE AIR ALOFT PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IMPACTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE REMAINDER OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC E OF 70W...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN EAST-WEST
ELONGATED 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N36W. THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE S OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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