[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5W 77.5W AT 07/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 148 NM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO 04N19W TO 04N23W TO 02N27W TO 02N32W TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN
19W-23W...AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
20N96W TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 32N91W.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MOST OF THE BASIN WHICH
REMAINS DRY AND STABLE PROMOTING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N86W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR TUXPAN. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE
WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 79W/80W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGHING AS WELL AS TO THE EAST AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS. THE RESULT AT THE SURFACE IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF
82W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION
PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IMPACTING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE REMAINDER OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC E OF 70W...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN EAST-WEST
ELONGATED 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N39W. THE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE S OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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