[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
07N18W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 02N26W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-
08N BETWEEN 10W-16W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 16W-
22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 33W-
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS
ACROSS BASIN PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SW NORTH ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW PREVAILS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW
AND SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHING AND
AREAS N OF 17N E OF 82W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
18N BETWEEN 75W-81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA. WHILE MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED
NORTH OF THE BASIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE LINGERING
ACTIVITY PROVIDES THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND A POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
75W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH OVERALL STABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES E OF 80W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE
TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION
PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS MORNING.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A 1015
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
26N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 31N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE AREA FROM 21N-32N W OF 66W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN THE VICINITY OF 38N27W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N26W SW TO 25N35W TO 23N45W TO 24N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N15W TO 19N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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