[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N21W TO 03N27W TO 03N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
08W-12W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 15W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND FROM 02N-04N
BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS
ACROSS BASIN PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED IN THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WEST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW PREVAILS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW
AND SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHING AND
AREAS N OF 18N E OF 82W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
18N BETWEEN 76W-83W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA. WHILE MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED
NORTH OF THE BASIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE LINGERING
ACTIVITY PROVIDES THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING
AND A POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ALOFT WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF 80W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION
PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS EVENING.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A 1017
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 31N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM
21N-32N W OF 67W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWARD. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY
OF 37N30W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N28W SW TO
25N40W TO 24N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 32N15W TO 27N22W TO 23N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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