[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N17W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N25W 3N37W 2N43W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 1.5N BETWEEN 11W-18W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 21W-26W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 28W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF SE OF LINE FROM 25N80W
TO 24N84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA. WEAK RIDGING
COVERS THE W GULF A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N95W AND A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
LINE FROM 20N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED S OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N66W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 74W.
A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N80W ALONG 18N84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. A
SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 19N82W TO
16N83W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM W OF
THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-81W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS
OVERNIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE SAT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE
PREVAILING. MOISTURE COULD INCREASE ON SUN INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF A PASSING SHOWER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC.
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO
THE W ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W TO
31N58W WHERE IT BECOMES WARM FRONT TO A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 32N67W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ALONG 28N72W ACROSS THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
28N-30N W OF 54W TO THE W ATLC COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 225 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N71W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E
ATLC BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR MADIERA ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N20W ALONG 24N40W 21N60W TO 20N71W. W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL GET A REINFORCEMENT FROM ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N63W ALONG 26N65W TO E CUBA SAT AND BECOME DIFFUSE
SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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