[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W TO 7N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N22W 2N31W 1N40W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 15W-20W AND
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT. THE REMNANT COLD FRONT
IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF SE OF LINE FROM S
FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.
WEAK RIDGING HAS BUILT IN OVER THE W GULF WITH A PAIR OF 1016 MB
HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 28N94W AND 21N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF LINE FROM MERIDA MEXICO ALONG 20N92W TO N OF
TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED NEAR
PUERTO RICO. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. A
REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
23N80W TO 18N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT AND
EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W ALONG 19N82W TO 16N84W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W
OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. BROKEN
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-81W
LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF HAITI WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE
PREVAILING. MOISTURE COULD INCREASE ON SUN INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF A PASSING SHOWER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC.
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO
THE W ATLC WITH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N50W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO 30N55W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N61W
31N68W TO A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 32N70W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW ALONG 27N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA AND
INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27W W OF 56W TO THE W ATLC COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 22N-27N W OF 73W TO OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1024 MB HIGH JUST N OF
MADIERA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N22W ALONG 22N44W
TO 20N70W. THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA
EARLY FRI THEN BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS FROM 31N67W TO
CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT EARLY ON SAT FROM NEAR 32N62W ALONG
29N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE MERGED FRONTS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
32N63W ALONG 27N65W TO E CUBA SAT THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN FROM 32N55W ALONG 26N65W TO 23N70W AND TROUGH TO E CUBA
SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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