[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N20W TO 02S28W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY
S OF THE EQUATOR REACHING THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S35W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. WITH THIS...A SLIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N74W TO 19N79W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING E CUBA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS BOUNDARY
INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS N OF HONDURAS FROM 19N79W TO 17N86W. NW
OF THE SHEAR LINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA WHILE A SLIGHT E FLOW PREVAILS SE OF THE
LINE. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-72W WHERE A MODERATE
BREEZE PREVAILS AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHEAR LINE TO WEAKEN BECOMING
DIFFUSE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN
INCREASING TO STRONG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER E CUBA ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CONVECTION IS
STILL EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND WIND CONVERGENCE PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. TO THE E...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N61W TO 21N74W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS N OF 25N BETWEEN 63W-72W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 33N49W. TO THE E OF THIS
FEATURE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 26N42W TO 23N41W. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-
41W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN CENTERED NEAR 39N21W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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