[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N9W THEN ALONG 3N12W 1N18W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W.
THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS JUST TO THE SE AND IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1032 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO GIVING THE GULF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN OVER FAR E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA
THEN W TO JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES ALONG 18N83W TO 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-79W AND
S OF 20N W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE
W AND CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 62W-66W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH MON. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN INCREASING
TO STRONG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO
MODERATE ON MON THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF S HAITI ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT OVER E CUBA. THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS E INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N61W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS NEAR 22N74W TO FAR E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. REMNANT
MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT
AND COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO
BEYOND 32N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N48W. A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 26N43W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N45W ALONG 28N42W TO 23N41W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
21N-26N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM
E OF THE AZORES. THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WHILE THE FRONT S OF 25N WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND SETTLE ALONG 28N BY LATE
MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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