[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W THEN ALONG 4N12W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. THE
ITCZ COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E
OF 16W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC
AND NW CARIBBEAN. REMNANT MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE S GULF
IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD STILL
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 24N94W WITH
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA TONIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW
TO NE MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT SE ON SUN WITH A SURFACE
HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR TAMPA BAY ON MON AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC
AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG 19N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 19N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES
THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N78W
20N80W TO 18N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO
THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E
OF THE ABOVE LIE WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL
MOVE E ACROSS CUBA REACHING FROM FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
HONDURAS ON SUN THEN LOSE IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS
ON MON. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
INCREASING TO STRONG DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD POP UP THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR HAITI EARLY SUN
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN SPREAD ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOR HAITI SPREADING EASTWARD
INTO MON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N75W TO THE N COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 22N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
30N69W ALONG 24N73W TO 21N77W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS W
OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. REMNANT MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT
AND COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND
32N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N49W TO N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N36W TO 25N39W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 23N45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH
JUST E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO E CUBA THIS EVENING THEN FROM 32N60W ALONG 24N65W TO HAITI ON
SUN EVENING AND FROM 32N53W 21N65W W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON MON EVENING. THE E/CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E ALONG
27N ON SUN THEN SHIFT N ON MON AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS NEAR
30N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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