[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 04N08W TO
02N13W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 03S23W
TO 03S30W 01S37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05S E
OF 04W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09S TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 10W AND 33W...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN BRAZIL S OF 06N W OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE SW N ATLC ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NW
HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
27N93W. RIDGING AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 91W. LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND FLOW
DOMINATES OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA TO NW HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 78W. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
DRY AIR DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS
FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN
W OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA
SW TO NEARLY 80W WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT
TO BELIZE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
GREAT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
ISLAND WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SURROUNDS ITS
ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SOME CLOUDINESS BUT
NO SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO NEARLY 80W WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO BELIZE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GREAT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N73W SW TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NW HONDURAS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
30N35W SW TO 22N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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