[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 20N AND W
OF 95W BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES MOVING E ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 9-13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ
IS LOCATED FROM 05S15W TO 06S28W TO 03S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 MN OF THESE BOUNDARIES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
35N81W AND EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT SW TO 30N84W THEN ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS TO 26N90W TO 20N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 22N AND E
OF 97W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS...FOR
MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDING FROM 26N85W TO 28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE E GULF MAINLY E OF
87W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 19N91W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 19N BETWEEN 91W-94W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION. A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA. A 1031 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE
CARIBBEAN. WITH THESE FEATURES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-75W WHERE GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO
30N76W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO
THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N51W
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO
24N43W...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH 22N48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-44W. A STATIONARY
1034 MB SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH
CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BECOMING A TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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