[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W
TO 26N92W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS
S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
07N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N
BETWEEN 04W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO EASTERN
TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N92W TO THE EAST
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. WITH THE SURFACE FORCING IN PLACE
AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE
BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS A 300 NM WIDE SWATH ON BOTH SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 29N83W TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO
MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY
SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 21N76W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN
OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES THIS MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION S-SW TO EASTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHERLY FLOW OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 28N W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
37N40W TO A BASE NEAR 22N51W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N38W TO 24N45W TO 21N58W AND BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE W-NW
TO 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 46W...WITH LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY W OF 46W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N54W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W.
FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N18W IS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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