[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
05N16W TO 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 01N20 TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 02W-06W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION N OF 28N AND A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N66W W-SW
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W AND ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF
WATERS TO NEAR SLIDELL LOUISIANA. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY
DRY AND PRECIPITATION-FREE ACROSS THE NE GULF...HOWEVER DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF THE FRONT. TO THE WEST...AN UPPER TO
MIDDLE LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUPPORTING
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FOCUSED ON A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR DALLAS. MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW
GULF GENERALLY W OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO 22N97W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK 1018 ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 27N91W THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST...SLIPS ACROSS FLORIDA...
AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC ON SAT...THE NEXT WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER A MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BASIN BECOMES WESTERLY OVER THE GREATER AND
LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE FOR
MUCH OF THE BASIN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS WEAK WITH MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE AREA WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS INFLUENCE THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OCCURRING
OFFSHORE OF SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N73W. THIS OVERALL FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD TROUGHING IS NOTED N OF 28N OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
STEMMING FROM A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA CANADA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA
NEAR 32N65W W-SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
77W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SOUTHWARD FROM THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 24N60W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 36N42W TO 24N45W.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
32N46W TO 28N50W TO 22N60W TO 22N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
39N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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