[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181458 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W ALONG 4N16W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER
SW AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-5W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 12W-
19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS W TEXAS EXTENDING THE UPPER
RIDGE NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES. A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW OVER W TEXAS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM
MATAGORDA TEXAS TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED IN THE NE GULF EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER E GULF TODAY AND THU THEN SHIFT NW OF
THE AREA ON FRI WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA TO FLORIDA BAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH THE
NE GULF ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO THE TIP OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS THEN N ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN BY THE
TRADE WINDS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N71W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM MARTINIQUE TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHERWISE THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING ON THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING
WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THU. MOISTURE WILL
THEN INCREASE ON FRI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 57W-5W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N79W OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 24N77W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W THEN EXTENDS ALONG
22N55W TO 20N60W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 20N65W. A SURFACE
TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N47W TO 19N50W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT N OF 27N AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
23N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE AZORES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE W ATLC THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL E TO W ALONG 27N IN
THE W ATLC LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE THU AS A
WARM FRONT N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS ON THU NIGHT REACHING FROM
32N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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