[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W ALONG 3N16W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E
OF 4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 14W-21W AND
S OF 2N TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE E GULF
OF MEXICO TO NE FLORIDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS W
TEXAS AND IS DRAWING THE UPPER RIDGE FROM NE FLORIDA W TO THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
OVER W TEXAS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF W
OF A LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N93W.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE NE GULF EXTENDS INLAND OVER
THE SE CONUS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE N GULF
COAST FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. SURFACE
HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT
TO THE SE GULF ON THU AND THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES E
THROUGH THE NE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN RE-BUILD SE FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO FLORIDA BAY ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN TO THE TIP OF
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS THEN N-NW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED
IN BY THE TRADE WINDS DOT THE AREA FROM 16N-19N ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BELIZE. OTHERWISE THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THU. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS WITH
POSSIBLE STRONG TRADE WINDS ON SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE MOST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SW DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND SE HAITI. LINGERING MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THU. MOISTURE WILL THEN
INCREASE ON FRI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N44W THEN EXTENDS
ALONG 26N52W TO 22N57W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 21N66W. A
SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N48W TO
20N53W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE AZORES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER ON WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE W ATLC JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WED AND EXTEND FROM 32N59W
ALONG 29N65W TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA BY LATE WED. THE SEGMENT
OF THE FRONT W OF 75W WILL MOVE N AS WARM FRONT E OF FLORIDA THU
AND ACCELERATE N INTO FRI. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR
W ATLC FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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