[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03N30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN NEAR 01S49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-04N BETWEEN 07W AND
19W...AND FROM 02S TO 02N W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 87W EXTENDS FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF...THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON THE
NW GULF BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N93W. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND
CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. WINDS ARE VARIABLE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10
KT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLC AND CENTRAL
STATES WILL ENTER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WED MORNING
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE TAIL OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA THU
MORNING DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR CAPE CORAL
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER HISPANIOLA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
WITH DISSIPATING TAIL BEING NEAR 150 NM AWAY FROM THE NE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A
TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...THUS ENHANCING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
ADJACENT WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED
MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N61W TO 14N62W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES TO
BE FAVORED BY SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS. TRADES OF 10 KT DOMINATES OVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS
INCREASES UP TO 20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT N
OF THE ISLAND ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTING THE FRONT SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN
WATERS. A TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS ENHANCING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N68W THAT FAVORS
FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN. FARTHER EAST...AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 52W EXTENDING SW TO
A BASE OVER HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 30N48W SW TO 24N57W TO 20N67W WHERE IT STARTS TO
DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
24N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR THE AZORES COVERS REGION N OF 22N. BY THU
MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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