[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 7N11W TO 3N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S41W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT 29N90W WITH 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N93W TO
18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 97W.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA THE SE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 23N109W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER INLAND MEXICO S OF 24N BETWEEN 100W-106W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA
NAMELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND
HONDURAS. IN ADDITION SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...AND N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W...WHILE THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT
...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH THE
TRADEWINDS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W
TO 24N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 24N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N32W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N21W TO 28N27W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
20N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND
EXTEND FROM 31N50W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO MOROCCO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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