[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
02N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N15W TO 01N18W TO 02N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN
02W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN
17W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ALOFT OVER THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION NEAR 24N110W...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BASIN...AND BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THE RIDGING ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AN
AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW GULF...BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND RIDGING ALONG
EASTERN MEXICO. A 1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N93W ANCHORED THE
TROUGHING THAT EXTENDING N-NE TO JUST OFFSHORE OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM 28N97W TO 19N92W. THE
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 13N83W AND IS PROVIDING GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NW
FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY EAST
OF 75W AND REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. OVERALL CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE ARE IN FACT STABLE AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BASIN WIDE. A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND PORTIONS. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES DOMINATE THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA
THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N58W AND EXTENDING SW TO 27N70W AND THEN TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 75W. A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 22N64W TO 29N58W
AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 28N28W WITH AXIS EXTENDING W-SW TO
21N43W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N22W TO
30N30W...AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 36N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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