[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W LATER THIS EVENING.
GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W TO 3N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
2N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 2N BETWEEN 23W-
26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER
MEXICO COVERING THE FAR W GULF OF MEXICO AND AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC COVERING
THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 10/2100 UTC NEAR CAILLOU BAY
LOUISIANA ALONG 26N93W TO MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE
FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE
FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N95W INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO 19N94W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM E
LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE N ALONG THE FRONT AND
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE THU. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE N GULF WHILE THE S
PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE AXIS ALONG 77W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. PERSISTENT RIDGING
OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND WINDS PULSING AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU EVENING. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 19N BETWEEN 65W-85W AND IS
BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA W OF 81W. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOMINATE THE
ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N61W AND
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF
30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W TO
31N43W WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 28N49W TO
27N57W. ISOLATED SHOWER ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N47W
AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 40W-47W.
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER W ALGERIA SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER SENEGAL N INTO THE ATLC
WATERS NEAR 24N16W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST DRAWN OVER THE
ATLC WATERS FROM 17N-27N AND AS FAR W AS 28W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC BETWEEN MADEIRA AND THE AZORES.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W ATLC BEFORE RETREATING
EASTWARD WED. THIS WILL ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE S OF
31N THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N45W ALONG 24N65W TO
JUST N OF GRAND BAHAMA FRI AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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