[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED OVER COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING GALE FORCE
WINDS ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W.
GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N07W TO
04N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL
NEAR 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL U.S. SW
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND MEXICO TO A BASE OVER EPAC WATERS.
TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORT A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SW
TO 26N93W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
24N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 21N W OF
89W. DENSE FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED W OF THE FRONT N OF
26N...COINCIDING WITH MODERATE GOES-13 IFR FOG PROBABILITIES.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS BEHIND THE
FRONT WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE E OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE ATLC...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE BASIN BY FRIDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...THUS FAVORING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT
HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN THAT ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006
MB LOW OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN MAY
ENHANCE PASSING SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATES OVER THE ATLC WATERS. RIDGING ALONG DRY AIR SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING TO 25N SUPPORT A COLD FRONT TO 30N45W
THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N50W TO 27N56W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST S OF THE TROUGH BASE SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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