[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091710
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N11W TO
4N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N14W TO 0N27W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST AT 29N90W TO THE SURFACE
LOW TO NE MEXICO AT 25N98W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF E TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-100W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N75W. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE E GULF E OF 90W OF WITH 10-15 KT
SE SURFACE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE TO
LOUISIANA NEAR 33N93W. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND S OF
THE LOW TO THE W GULF NEAR 24N97W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THIS GALE IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF S OF 14N W OF 78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR TRADEWINDS TO PRODUCE LOW-TOPPED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW GULF.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLAND. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF PASSING SHOWERS WITHIN TRADEWIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N75W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO
27N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A
1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N34W WITH
FAIR WEATHER. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 22N17W A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N23W TO THE LOW
CENTER TO 18N15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY INLAND OVER W
AFRICA FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 10W-16W. THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATES A STRONG PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST
FROM 16N-34N BETWEEN 18W-39W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N48W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 22N18W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N46W TO 28N51W WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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