[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
COLOMBIA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
IS GENERATING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 24W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING
WITH AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 29N106W.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO THE WEST...A 1015 MB
SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR
27N97W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO 28N90W AND
SOUTH TO NEAR 25N98W ACROSS INLAND NE MEXICO. THIS DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY OF AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS AND INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SE TEXAS. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS OFFSHORE ALONG THE
EASTERN MEXICO COAST FROM 23N97W SE TO 18N93W. TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT TO THE N-
NE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL
STALL AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW
GULF AND QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SE LOUISIANA COAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS OVERALL
SCENARIO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING WITHIN VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL
STABILITY AND FAIR CONDITIONS. ASIDE FROM PASSING LOW-TOPPED
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL AMERICA COAST...THE LARGEST IMPACT REMAINS A LARGE AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES W OF 83W. THIS AREA ALSO INCLUDES NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
OVERALL DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH A SMALL PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER WITHIN
TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION CURRENTLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A E-W
STRETCHED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER EASTERN
CUBA TO NEAR 26N47W. WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...
THE ONLY BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA IS A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N52W TO 27N65W THAT BECOMES A
SHEAR LINE TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N80W. SHALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N71W MAINTAINING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 19N48W THAT SUPPORTS INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW FROM 13N-22N
BETWEEN 41W-48W. FINALLY...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 23N19W THAT SUPPORTS
A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N17W. WHILE OVERALL CONVECTION
LACKS WITH THIS FEATURE...THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING
PRODUCT INDICATES A STRONG PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST FROM 18N-32N
E OF 35W. THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
NOUADHIBOU INTL AIRPORT IN WESTERN MAURITANIA INDICATED REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND BLOWING DUST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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