[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH
FRI EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REOCCUR FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND
THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 4N-
14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MODERATE SURGE OF MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE S OF 9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 70W FROM 15N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 16N
TO OVER PANAMA MOVING W-SW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N19W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N36W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N40W ALONG 5N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
20W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS NE
INTO THE GULF NEAR BROWNSVILLE TO OVER LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION
BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT
IS CENTERED OVER THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH IS RACING OFF THE W COAST OF THE
YUCATAN AND AT 18/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N90W ALONG 20N92W
INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 17N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THIS BOUNDARY TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE
E GULF TO 92W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N87W. A SEABREEZE
TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG A LINE FROM NAPLES JUST W
OF ORLANDO TO JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE NE
GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
NEAR CANCUN COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W. AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO S NICARAGUA
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PARTS OF CUBA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DENSE AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE SW CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL WILL MOVE INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE THE ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE
RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY AND THE PASSING OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SCENARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 65W ANCHORED N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND EXTENDS A NARROW UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS TO 22N75W. TWO UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC...ONE CENTERED NEAR
23N61W AND A SECOND ONE NEAR 25N41W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT LIES ALONG THE N PERIPHERY NEAR
BERMUDA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N-31N BETWEEN 63W-67W. THE SURFACE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLC THROUGH 32N33W TO A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N45W ALONG 26N63W
TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N76W CONTINUING ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN
DUST COVERS THE TROPICS S OF 23N INTO THE CARIBBEAN THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE NW/SE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH FRI THEN WILL ALIGN ALONG 28W/29N OVER
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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