[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 11N
TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 14
FEET...EXCEPT REACHING TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. A
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N76W...ABOUT
120 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
BAHAMAS...AND COMPARATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA.
THE FORECAST OF GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUES FOR THE
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N33W 10N35W 5N37W E
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 26W
AND 36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N TO
11N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
WEAK 700 MB TROUGH THAT IS BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. THE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LENGTHY EASTERLY JET THAT STRETCHES FROM
12N37W TO 15N78W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASED VALUES OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W IN
THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO
5N25W 8N32W 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N FROM 34W
EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE FROM 93W
EASTWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE SMALLER AREA THAT IS FROM 24N
SOUTHWARD AND FROM 88W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1020
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N87W...THROUGH COASTAL
LOUISIANA...BEYOND EAST TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ALONG 28N FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
TO 29N/30N BY SATURDAY.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W
IN PARTS OF BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN GUATEMALA...
AND FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO EASTERN HONDURAS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD FROM 71W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 26N59W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...EVEN INTO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE
READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE.
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 21N
BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL 26N59W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINSHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... GIVEN
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND THE PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N18W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 31N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO A 24N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 26N59W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N64W AND 21N69W. THE TROUGH
EVENTUALLY EXTENDS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL SIDE OF
CENTRAL CUBA...TO A YUCATAN CHANNEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N58W 27N67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 70W...AND
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N37W...24N49W...
27N66W...AND TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net