[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG EXTENDS FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA...AROUND
14/0345 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. GALE-FORCE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W
AND 87W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CARRYING WITH IT GALE-
FORCE WINDS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER
IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THIS
AFTERNOON...IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY TO DO SO. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS FEATURE IS FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER WMO FZNT02 KNHC OR MIAHSFAT2. THE CHANCES OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700
MB TROUGH IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. TPW SSMI IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A MOIST ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS FROM 04N TO 14N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 50W. STRONG DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR DOMINATES THE REGION...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SAHARAN DUST IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST ALSO IS
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF 09N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 59W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM
HAITI NEAR 19N SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THERE IS
ALSO A BROAD SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO 8N74W AND TO 7N78W IN COLOMBIA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG THIS WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA...AND REACHING THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO
7N27W 7N37W AND 7N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG...POSSIBLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N90W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 30N85W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N
SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N73W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N58W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N64W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE TROUGH ALSO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO
PUNTA CANA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N58W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N58W 26N63W 22N72W...TO 18N76W OFF
THE EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N76W...FROM 26N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N54W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING AROUND A 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N34W...FROM 27N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE CONNECTS THE THREE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...
EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

A 1022 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W IN THE CLOUDINESS
THAT IS AROUND THIS FEATURE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 46W EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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