[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO BELIZE AND NORTHEASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND JUST OFF THE COAST ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N NORTHWARD FROM
80W WESTWARD. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS FEATURE IS FOUND IN THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER WMO FZNT02 KNHC OR MIAHSFAT2. THE
CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700
MB TROUGH IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. TPW SSMI IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A MOIST ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS FROM 04N TO 14N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM 2N TO 17N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W. STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR DOMINATES THE REGION...INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. SAHARAN DUST IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST ALSO IS ALONG
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
09N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE PENINSULA DE
LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY DRY AIR. THERE IS
ALSO A BROAD SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INHIBITING ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO
9N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG THIS WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM SOUTHEASTERN PANAMA NEAR 8N78W
TO 9N80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 6N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N23W TO
6N30W 7N37W AND 7N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG...POSSIBLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 12W AND 18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 21W AND 24W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 47W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 40W WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N90W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA PRECIPITATION. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N85W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 29N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N73W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N59W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N64W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE TROUGH ALSO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N59W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N60W 28N68W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 31N59W 26N63W 22N70W...TO 18N76W BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N73W...FROM 26N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N54W...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING AROUND A 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N34W...FROM 27N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

A 1022 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W IN THE CLOUDINESS
THAT IS AROUND THIS FEATURE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 46W EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT
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