[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED AT 12/0600 UTC IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 25W/26W FROM 4N-15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
IN A VERY BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 35W/36W
FROM 4N-13W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SAME BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS THE WAVE ABOVE.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 56W
S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 70W/71W S
OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
9N24W THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N26W TO 6N34W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N35W
ALONG 5N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 27W-34W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 53W-58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 22W-27W...FROM 3N-11N
BETWEEN 34W-46W...AND FROM 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED BY AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 26N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N91W
ALONG 23N92W TO S MEXICO 19N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 89W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF E OF 91W. THIS IS LEAVING THE W GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO LOUISIANA. SE
SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUN THEN TIGHTEN AGAIN ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL GULF SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO 18N W OF 74W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 14N74W TO 16N66W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 74W INCLUDING CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CUBA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH TO THE E COVERING THE W ATLC W
OF 70W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N FROM OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A
1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF BERMUDA ALONG 31N75W ACROSS NE
FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE SECOND UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 30N62W TO 22N58W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 27N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN
56W-61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N47W.
W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES N OF
25N AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 25N THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONGER WINDS WILL PULSE N OF HISPANIOLA EACH NIGHT.
THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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