[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E/CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 32W
FROM 5N-14W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
VERY BROAD MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG
54W/55W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW 10-15
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 15N68W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 7N70W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
7N25W TO THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N31W THEN RESUMES
W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N35W ALONG 4N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-21W...WITHIN 90/120
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-38W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
6N41W TO 7N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-25W...
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-32W...AND WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA S OF 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED BY AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 28N91W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N E OF 92W TO THE N GULF COAST AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N90W
TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N91W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N BETWEEN 85W-92W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE W GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF
COAST TO LOUISIANA. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SOME SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO 18N W OF 77W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 14N73W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 70W
AND S OF 17N W OF 80W INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
AND FRI THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ON SAT. THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND SUN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN SAT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN. THE
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 70W. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH TO THE E COVERING THE W ATLC W
OF 70W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB
HIGH ABOUT 200 NM E OF BERMUDA ALONG 31N73W ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO
ALONG THE N GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
31N63W TO 22N59W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 30N54W ALONG 27N60W TO 26N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N47W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT TO POSITION FROM 30N65W TO NE FLORIDA ON SAT AND FROM
ALONG 28N TO NE FLORIDA ON SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE THE W ATLC
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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