[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 34W
FROM 2N-14N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N54W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 16N TO
ACROSS PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE SW
CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 80W-
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 7N18W TO 5N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS WEST OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 3N78W AND CONTINUES TO 1N45W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 10W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-27W AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W/CENTRAL MEXICO COVERS THE W
GULF WHILE AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 23N86W
TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST BETWEEN 89W-93W. A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT MYERS TO NEAR GAINSVILLE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO E TEXAS WITH A 1016 MB HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF TAMPA BAY FLORIDA AND A SECOND 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
S/CENTRAL AND SW GULF EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AN AXIS
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE S/CENTRAL
ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N W OF 80W
TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SW CARIBBEAN S OR 13N W
OF 75W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-
NW AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC WILL BUILD W ALONG 25N THROUGH MID WEEK BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TRADE WINDS FROM THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER HAITI HAVE
NOW DISSIPATED LEAVING THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS TYPE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING INDUCED BY DIFFLUNCE
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N79W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF
BERMUDA SUPPORTING A 1014 MB LOW OVER BERMUDA WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING W-SW TO 31N71W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N61W ALONG
27N63W 25N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 21N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 71W. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO
THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N57W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N52W. AN UPPER
LOW IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 32N30W TO A
SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 25N40W TO 15N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N27W ALONG 30N32W TO
29N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N57W
AND EXTENDS TO JUST OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W/54W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N42W. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT INTO TUE. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG ROUGHLY 23N TUE THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
N TO 27N BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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