[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS
NEAR 34W FROM 02N TO 15N MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN 105 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND IS
TILTED FROM 11N50W TO 02N53W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS
UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRESENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AN AXIS NEAR 81W
S OF 16N MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
19N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO UNDER AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W
TO 05N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N35W TO 01N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 25W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
28N80W INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH 25N83W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N93W. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE
GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N104W TO THE NE ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND
SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO HELPING TO
PROMOTE ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 23N WHICH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DIURNAL TROUGHING WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE
YUCATAN TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST TO
MODERATE TO FRESH EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING IS PRESENT
AT THE SURFACE ACROSS 27N. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE WATERS W OF 70W ARE DOMINATED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE
TROPICS TO THE N-NE AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
LOCATED JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS
PRESENT E OF 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN...
EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THEY ARE FRESH TO STRONG
DUE TO A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH WED BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
ITS WAKE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE AREA WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO
12 FT BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON JUST E OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE AREA ALSO UNDER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 29N78W WITH
ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 34N65W. TROUGHING EXTENDS
THROUGH BOTH CENTERS WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR NOTED ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGHING S OF 27N W OF 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO
THE E EXTENDING FROM NEAR 32N54W TO 27N57W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO.
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 13N57W WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE E. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE SW N ATLC N OF 30N E
OF 72W WHILE A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE TO THE S-SE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 31N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THE
SW N ATLC WATERS WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS TO THE E OF 65W.
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE E AS WEAK HIGH PRES
RIDGING NOSES INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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