[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
NEAR 25W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE...LIKELY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT AS
INDICATED BY METEOSAT DUST AND SAL IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
NEAR 39W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE. THERE IS DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO METEOSAT DUST AND SAL
IMAGERY...WHICH IS INFLUENCING THE LACK OF CONVECTION AT THE
TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 60W
MOVING W AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW
TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS.
METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W
TO 05N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N20W AND CONTINUES TO E OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N24W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR
05N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO
09N E OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE
OVER N CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W ACROSS THE SE CONUS
AND THE GULF TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. VERY
DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BASIN
AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. OVER THE SW AND SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN GULF. SEAS ARE 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE BASIN
WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 3 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN HIGH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 74W. A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL HONDURAS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT
THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 16N W OF 73W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH
TSTMS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA
THROUGH 48 HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NW HALF OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ISLAND
BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND AHEAD OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN BAHAMAS.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM
AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
35N78W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AND STABLE AIR N OF 27N
W OF 75W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING S OF THE TROUGH W OF 73W UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N75W TO 30N75W SW
TO ANDROS IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS
FROM 24N55W TO 19N62W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC WATERS AT THE SURFACE WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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