[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
FROM 10N25W TO 03N26W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND THIS WAVE HOWEVER GOES-R
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IMPINGING ON THE WAVE FROM THE N. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
FROM 10N35W TO 02N34W MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE HOWEVER IT IS ALSO BEING INHIBITED BY
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
EXTENDING FROM 13N58W TO 06N59W MOVING W AT AROUND 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AND MAKING THE WAVE LESS EVIDENT AT THE
SURFACE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W
TO 04N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 05N27W TO
03N33W THEN CONTINUES W OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 03N36W TO
01N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN
11W AND 18W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE
OVER S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 25N80W ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 29N91W TO CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT NW OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 28N89W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 28N.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPPED ACROSS THE NW AND N
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FLOW IS BRINING IN DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE NORTHERN TIP OF A SURFACE TROUGH BARELY EXTENDS INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAINLY
MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. SEAS
ARE 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD
TO 3 FT NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N82W WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 74W. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 74W. A 1009 MB
STATIONARY SURFACE LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH WHILE A MORE INTENSE AREA OF
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W
WITH ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE N OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA WITH 4-6 INCHES REPORTED AT ISLE OF
YOUTH AND HAVANA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERS IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH THE AIDE OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND AHEAD OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN BAHAMAS.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM
AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
25N80W TO 31N76W TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. MAINLY DRY
AND STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 27N79W TO NEAR BIMINI.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. ANOTHER
UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N58W WITH TROUGHING DOMINATING
THE WATERS BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 25N58W TO 20N63W. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM NE OF A
LINE FROM 20N54W TO 25N58W. OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES
THE ATLC WATERS AT THE SURFACE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WIND FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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