[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 10N TO 01N
...MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT S OF 08N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD OVER PANAMA...MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI
TPW SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.
ISOLATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND
84W...AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS AFRICA NEAR
13N17W AND OVER THE EASTERN ATLC THROUGH 11N20W TO 06N24W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 06N24W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 05N30W TO 03N42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N
TO 09N BETWEEN 06W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORT TWO SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 30N93W TO 28N94W. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N89W TO 26N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 25N
TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM 85W TO 94W. A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. THIS
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 89W
AND 96W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
THEN EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS PRODUCING DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF
CUBA...AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO 19N75W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH. 15 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE COMBINATION OF MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N73W TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 20N
ALONG 67W SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N
TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 71W. RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 36N43W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EAST OF 55W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE OPEN ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net