[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N17W AND 6N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N23W TO 4N32W TO 5N34W AND 4N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 15W...AND FROM 5N
TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IN CLUSTERS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 26W...AND
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI/NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
EAST TEXAS...TO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 27N
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 95W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 93W EASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 19N83W.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
FROM 29N91W TO 22N97W...AND TEXAS AND ITS COASTAL WATERS...AND
THE NORTHWESTERN THREE-FOURTHS OF LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N84W 26N83W. THE TROUGH WAS INLAND
IN FLORIDA AT 01/0000 UTC...AND RAINSHOWERS WERE INLAND IN
FLORIDA AT THAT TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT THIS
MOMENT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXIH...KHHV...
KEHC...KCRH...AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...AREAS OF
FOG AND HAZE ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE VISIBILITIES
ARE AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE IN HARLINGEN AND 3/4 MILE IN BROWNSVILLE.
FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE IN PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF PLAINS. BAY CITY TEXAS AND PATTERSON LOUISIANA
ARE REPORTING FOG AND A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE. LAFAYETTE
LOUISIANA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LAKE ALSO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 12N79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...IN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...BEING TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 9N TO 17N FROM 80W WESTWARD...IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 12N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 25N73W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI NEAR
18N75W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A BROAD ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
23N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 31N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N73W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI NEAR 18N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 480 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N70W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 25N63W...AND THEN WITHIN 540 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N63W BEYOND 32N60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N37W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 26N40W AND 18N41W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND
40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 65W. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 36N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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