[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS
ALONG 31N71W TO 26N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING N OF
30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH
SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AROUND 1200 UTC TODAY...AND RESUME AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING
FOR A PERIOD OF SIX HOURS. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 05N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01N30W TO 00N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 75W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN THE GULF FROM 26N82W
TO 25N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS TO 26N98W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N
OF THE FRONTS. E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS.
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
ACROSS THE FL STRAITS TODAY AND OVER CUBA TONIGHT. THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY
FRONT...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT
AND LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E US WILL SHIFT INTO THE W
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF GALE FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO SUPPORTS NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT IS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS OVER
JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SE
INTO THE AREA IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ISLAND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ENHANCED
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 75W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 31N71W SW TO SOUTH
FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS N OF
30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N53W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N36W IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN
30W AND 37W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB CENTERED NEAR
38N32W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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