[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS
ALONG 31N77W TO 30N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO START TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
HOURS N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
AROUND 1200 UTC SATURDAY...AND RESUME AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING FOR A
PERIOD OF SIX HOURS. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 42W...THEN SW TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 74W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S-SW CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN THE CENTRAL GULF
ALONG 27N82W TO 25N91W TO MATAMOROS MEXICO. THE FRONT CUT ACROSS
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI EXTENDING INTO
THE ENTIRE GULF. CONTINENTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE LIGHTER
WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S-SE TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE IT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT NW TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING...THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT ALSO COVERS PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC IS
SUPPORTING NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE NW BASIN WHILE
TRADES OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE NW FLOW IS
CONVERGING ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA WHERE A
MOIST AIRMASS ENHANCES RAINSHOWERS EXTENDING WITHIN 100 NM OFF
THE COAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS. AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS...THE WESTWARD MOVING
AIRMASS WILL STALL IN THE REGION ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 74W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 30N73W SW TO
EASTERN CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO START TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING HOURS N OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N53W SW TO 21N62W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF FRONT N OF
21N. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC. THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL STALL TONIGHT
AND DISSIPATE DURING SAT MORNING HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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