[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 03N21W TO 01N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-02N BETWEEN
25N-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
WATERS KEEPING THE BASIN WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. A PAIR OF SURFACE
HIGHS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
FIRST ONE IS A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. TO THE E...A
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N84W. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THEN ITS WESTERN PORTION WILL STALL ACROSS THE NW GULF
WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND E GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL
DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR
62W EXTENDS SW SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BEGINS AS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS HISPANIOLA...EXTENDING FROM 20N70W TO 17N74W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS. A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS AND S
OF PUERTO RICO ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 17N80W TO 13N82W. CLOUDINESS
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FAIR
WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A DEEP
LAYER DRY AIRMASS DOMINATES. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E
OF 80W WHILE GENTLE NE FLOW IS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN OVER
HISPANIOLA UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. WITH THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION ENTERING THE SW ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 31N55W TO
21N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 19N67W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 53W-63W. TO THE E
...THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N37W TO 24N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A BROAD 1036
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N30W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 38W WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES NE WHILE WEAKENING ALSO. THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE
W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED TO NEAR
GALE FORCE IS EXPECTED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY ALONG 30N BETWEEN 65W-75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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