[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 01N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN
25N-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
WATERS KEEPING THE BASIN WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. A PAIR OF SURFACE
HIGHS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE
FIRST ONE IS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N95W. TO THE E...A
1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH NO CONVECTION AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN
ENHANCING CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 64W
EXTENDS SW SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM 23N64W TO
17N44W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS
CONTINUES ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO ENHANCING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM
17N81W TO 12N82W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA AS A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS DOMINATES. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE NE FLOW IS W OF 80W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E THEN
BECOME STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW ATLANTIC
WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. WITH
THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL DRIFT E ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION ENTERING THE SW ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 31N56W TO
20N70W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN
53W-64W. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N37W
TO 24N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 34W-40W. A BROAD 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
38N30W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN. THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 38W WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES NE WHILE WEAKENING ALSO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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