[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET
ARE BEING EXPERIENCED NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN A SECOND AREA AT 42 HOURS...
WITH A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO
2N29W AND 3N40W...AND TO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 6N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N30W 18N37W 11N44W TO 8N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
19N17W TO 13N30W TO 6N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...
AND KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE VISIBILITY IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
NORTHERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 22N80W 17N85W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. 700 MB NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 80W WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W BEYOND
4N83W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM SANTO
DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGOA AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND A RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD..

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N81W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W 26N58W 18N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
26N41W TO 22N39W TO 13N40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N41W. THE COLD FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM 30N41W TO 25N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE 30N39W 26N41W 20N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N33W TO 21N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N39W-TO-25N46W COLD
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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