[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS
SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 02N32W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH...THEN CONTINUES FROM 02N36W TO 01N47W...SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 07N34W TO 02N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT
ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ON THE NW GULF
NEAR 24N96W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVERS THE BASIN E OF 87W
WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE SE OF LINE
FROM 30N87W TO 20N96W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN W TO NW SWELL. COLD DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY. A
NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING...FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO
25N81W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 22N82W TO NORTHERN-CENTRAL
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WEST
CARIBBEAN WEST OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W...EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20 KT. OTHER
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES SHALLOW
MOISTURE ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 1N686W...TRANSITIONING TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 21N77W TO 16N86W MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE EASTERN HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THIS
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE
WEST ON MONDAY...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W
TO 25N81W WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT AND A
RIDGE FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF CUBA...TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE
FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS
IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N42W SW TO 26N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO 35W.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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