[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N34W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF
LOUISIANA TO 24N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N91W ALONG
24N89W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-29N E OF 87W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
87W-91W. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE W ATLC.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM
VERACRUZ MEXICO TO NEAR GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DRIFT NE AND BECOME A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF EARLY TODAY THEN MOVE E OF THE GULF ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO THE
MONA PASSAGE CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM E
CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 20N82W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA S OF 13N. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS MORNING. STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH
NIGHT WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE AGAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU WITH A
CHANCE OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 25N63W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W THEN DISSIPATES
AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. A PERSISTENT 1014 MB LOW
REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG
25N55W TO BEYOND 32N48W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-
28N BETWEEN 53W-58W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE E
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N49W ALONG 27N51W TO 25N57W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 19N51W TO
14N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THE W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. THE CENTRAL ATLC
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
CUBA LATE WED NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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