[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N30W TO 2N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH A WEAK
UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 25N93W. A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE S GULF ALONG 22N86W ALONG
24N89W TO 24N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 82W-94W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
OVER THE FLORIDA E COAST. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME A SURFACE TROUGH AND BECOME
ORIENTATED N TO S ACROSS CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 85W ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO THE
MONA PASSAGE CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM E
CUBA NEAR 21N76W ALONG 20N81W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N86W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N
OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. THESE TRADE
WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W TO NICARAGUA S
OF 12N AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH
NIGHT WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF
16N ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THU WITH A CHANCE OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N63W TO 23N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER CUBA NEAR
21N76W THEN DISSIPATES AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE
ALONG 25N55W TO BEYOND 32N50W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N49W 26N53W TO
A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE W
ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ALONG
THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 18N50W TO
12N52W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES. THE
CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATER THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT
EXTENDING ALONG 73W BY WED EVENING REACHING 65W THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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