[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 04N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 02N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAINLY E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF
BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO THE BASIN. A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG
22N83W THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ALONG 22N85W TO 23N88W. FROM
THAT POINT THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N97W. A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 29N91W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG AND N OF 25N. A SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEPICTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 26N WHILE THE AREA S OF THE FRONTS HAS A
SLIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
TO CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION WILL WEAKEN INTO
A TROUGH AND PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N83W THEN INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF ALONG 22N85W TO 23N88W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS RELATED TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED S OF 13N IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SLIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 12N WHERE A MODERATE NE
FLOW IS OBSERVED USING SCATTEROMETER DATA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N83W THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF ALONG
22N85W TO 23N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 26N79W TO 30N72W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
1013 MB SURFACE LOW FROM 30N50W TO 23N56W TO 20N66W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
18N49W TO 14N50W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE END OF A COLD FRONT THAT
ORIGINATES OVER NORTHERN AFRICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC S
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 29N22W TO 28N13W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE THE
PORTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL ALSO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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