[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N27W 1N42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
15W-18W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 39W FROM 2N-6N WITH
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W ALONG 23N87W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT MYERS TO
26N90W. THE FRONT HAS SPLIT THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE GULF
AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 83W-89W AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N
BETWEEN 92W-96W. THE E PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVES SE
OUT OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WHILE THE W PORTION WEAKENS TO A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE S/CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO TUE. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE E AS A COLD FRONT STARTING ON TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA
CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLANDS
OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN BEFORE
STALLING LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATING BY MON. STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT WITH
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND LEAVING THE ISLAND UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THE
EASTERLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS THOROUGH MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N71W AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N76W THEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N74W ALONG 27N78W THEN
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 28N51W ALONG 23N51W
TO 21N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 45W-49W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ALONG 58W TO 28N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N46W TO 15N48W. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER N AFRICA IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA NEAR 28N11W THEN ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W TO 29N21W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH
JUST S OF THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL RACE E INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC BY TUE WHILE THE S PORTION MOVES INTO THE FAR N CARIBBEAN
WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN DISSIPATES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 27N STARTING WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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