[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N27W TO 1N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-22W AND
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO 29N OVER LOUISIANA SUPPORTING A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS. A
SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT IS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDING FROM 27N90W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE N GULF WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 29N86W TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY AND PASS
OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. THE FAST MOVING COLD OVER TEXAS WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS A WEAKENING COLD OVER THE N PORTION OF HISPANIOLA
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO
17N67W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT/TROUGH ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS N OF 17N TO
OVER THE S PORTION OF HAITI. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TODAY. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE SW PORTION OF HAITI. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO
DAY THEN A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N51W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N58W
20N67W OVER HISPANIOLA ALONG 19.5N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NEAR 20N74W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N57W
ALONG 20N62W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 17N67W IN THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LEADING
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N57W ALONG 29N67W TO 30N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM CUBA TO BEYOND 32N W OF 75W
TO 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM S OF THE
AZORES. THE LEADING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE S OF 22N ON MON
AND ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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