[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N28W TO 2N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-21W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY N OF 30N SUPPORTING A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N90W
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29.5N92W AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N93W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO OVER CUBA E OF 84W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE FAST MOVING COLD OVER
TEXAS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF SUN MORNING THROUGH MON
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF TUE
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS E CUBA NEAR
20N74W 21N80W TO 20N86W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 16N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND N OF 20N TO
OVER CUBA W OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR SKIES
TONIGHT. WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A DECREASING CHANCE MON
AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N61W
20N69W TO 20N72W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N57W ALONG 22N62W TO OVER PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF 26N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 22N-26N. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TRAILS THE LEADING
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 31N70W TO 32N77W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM S OF THE AZORES. THE
LEADING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY
MON MORNING THEN SHIFTING E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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