[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 22 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

...GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TENNESSEE TO 30N87W 25N92W TO 18N96W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE W-SW GULF
PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS OVER THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 04N07W AND
CONTINUES TO 02N14W TO 05N24W TO 02N33W TO 01S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-14N BETWEEN 18W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
TENNESSEE TO 30N87W...25N92W...18N96W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THE
FRONT FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-93W. A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE A GENTLE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE W-SW GULF BY TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E REACHING THE SE GULF INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF ON MONDAY AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS
KEEPING THE BASIN UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH CONTINUES
INHIBITING STRONG/DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING QUICKLY TO THE W WITH THE
TRADE WINDS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AMERICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

A STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE
WINDS IS DEVELOPING ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY W. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT N OF 30N BETWEEN 35W-42W IN THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD
FRONT LOCATED NEAR 29N43W AND EXTENDING N INTO THE N ATLANTIC.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE
W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE PUSHING S ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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