[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 14 TO 22 FT. THE GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

...GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW ON NORTHERN ALABAMA
TO 30N88W 24N92W TO 20N96W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE W-SW GULF CONTINUING UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CONTINUES OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC TO 07N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 06N33W TO 01N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA
TO 30N88W 24N92W TO 20N96W. THE FRONT COINCIDES WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE W-SW GULF TONIGHT. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE THAT IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AMERICA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ELSEWHERE
IN THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 30 KT ON THE CENTRAL BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE
WIND FLOW MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE ISLAND THIS
MORNING. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN N OF 14N. THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE THE SW N ATLC WED MORNING. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION WILL SINK INTO
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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