[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 30N WITHIN 150 NM E OF A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO 27N80W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT UNTIL 1200 UTC THURSDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS S OF 20N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. THE GALE WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE AT 1800 UTC TODAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1S30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-
26W...AND FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AT 20N90W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 20N87W. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND W CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N. A GALE IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 95W. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER S FLORIDA AND W CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 12 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO BE OUT OF THE GULF WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE E GULF...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W CUBA AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY JUST S
OF W CUBA. 25 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE TROUGH. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA
TO HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO APPROACH W HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO 27N80W. A
GALE IS E OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 50W.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
21N22W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM 30N65W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net