[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28.5N WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN N ATLC. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT UNTIL 0600 UTC THURSDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF 21N W OF 95W ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF. THE GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
BELOW GALE FORCE AT 1800 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 07N12W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO S
OF THE EQUATOR AT 26W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 2S45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W
OF 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL NEAR 28N82W AND ACROSS THE GULF TO 24N88W TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS S FL NEAR 25N81W AND OVER THE SE
GULF TO 23N85W AND THEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NW GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SE AND WILL EXIT THE GULF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TO HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST NW OF THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF
A LINE FROM 18N88W TO 22N83W. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE BASIN E OF 73W. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE OVER
THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE US SLIDES EAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
34N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FL NEAR
28N81W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N77W TO FL
NEAR MIAMI AS OF 1200 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 70 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE EAST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 43W SUPPORTS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N46W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FRANCE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 30N72W TO THE
BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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